It sure looks like the Iraq prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is jumping on board with Obama’s 16-month, 12-month, 10-month, whatever time line for troop withdrawal. No one with more than 10 IQ points can really fault al-Maliki for taking this position, being that John McCain has more or less said he would like to have a presence in Iraq until the universe burns up all the available hydrogen and goes cold. Incidentally, John McCain’s position is the very one that would almost guarantee al-Maliki swinging from the gallows within a few years.

Of course, Obama, McCain and everyone else in the world are rushing to heap praise on “The Surge” (lemon-lime flavor) for its successes without any real idea of what has been accomplished. Yes, violence is down, the streets are quiet, things seem to be improving, but this has all been bought at the expense that Iraq is now more reliant on U.S. forces than before. Post-surge troop levels are higher still than pre-surge levels. No one really knows that fewer U.S. forces mean, but its a fair guess that the bad guys have read Mao and Lao Tzu even if we have not. No one was looking to kick up trouble when the boys were in town.

Being that a good portion of these guys are still around and waiting for the green flag, the best option for Al-Maliki is showing the Americans the door and tapping his foot impatiently until we leave.

This is only the opening shots of what looks suspiciously like a good old fashioned power struggle in Iraq. The U.S. got real cozy with Europe after the fun times of kings and monarchs alternately killing or sleeping with each other, so its experience in messy political arrangements could probably fit on the back of an envelope. Besides that, the U.S. has some of the best natural barriers ever designed - the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on the sides and two non-military powers to the top and bottom. Throughout a nasty, brutish and short history the U.S. hasn’t had to cut many deals with the end goal of staying the hell alive.

Iraq, on the other hand, aint the U.S. Iraq sits smack dab on top of some of the nastiest most blood soaked soil in the world. If you don’t believe me, try this fun little bit of compressed world history:

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If you really want to score extra points you’ve also got to realize that Iraq is also the major fault line between Sunni and Shia Islam, not to mention half a dozen or so break aways up north in Kurd land.

The end of the story is that living, and especially governing in Iraq is a story of busting heads, knees and caps. We thought we had it bad during the Civil War when folks lined up like they were going to the movies and marched in step toward each other like a bunch of morons. You can just imagine some old timey biblical warriors, the ones that thought raping and killing and all was what you did when the battle was over. Sherman might have thought he was tough when he leveled Atlanta — his one foul up was that after burning the city he should have slaughtered the survivors THEN salted the earth to make the land uninhabitable. Point is, at the end of the day your Americans don’t know much about keeping your head on your shoulders in a bad neighborhood but you can bet al-Maliki and the current bureaucrats in Iraq are putting in their overtime to keep the shrouds over their buns when the Americans eventually leave.

What this mean isn’t much of a shock. Nouri Al Maliki is a Shia Muslim so was the guy before him, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. The president, Jalal Talabani, is Sunni but Kurdish, and the rest of the Sunni in Iraq have a pretty good recent history of killing the Kurds. The recent hold up over elections stem from Kurdish gripes about trying to continue the de-Kurdification of Kirkuk started under Saddam Hussein. Guess what group Hussein, a Sunni Muslim, moved up there to route the Kurds out? That would be the same group that just rejoined the government upon the likely realization that Sunni voices were about to get a lot quieter in Iraq.

So the obvious choice for Iraq to buddy up with is their dear, sweet neighbor - Iran. Well, what do you know - there they are! And can you imagine a worse outcome for Washington, the U.S. military and the Republican Party than five years worth of effort, thousands dead or injured and round abouts of a trillion dollars only to have our pet country snuggling up with the region’s biggest anti-American antagonist? There isn’t a writer alive that can conjure up irony like father time. It’s like the MasterCard commercial from hell. The social discontent that would follow an Iraq-Iran alliance — priceless.

But it’s not like there are any other cards on the table. The Shia majority in Iraq isn’t going to have anything to do with the Wahhabi nuts in Saudi Arabia, the Kurds aren’t going to agree to any agreement with Turkey, Syria can’t even manage Lebanon. Who’s left - Jordan and Kuwait? Boy, there’s a security alliance you can hang your hat on. Not to mention all the good press you get by buddying up with the most pro-Israel country in the region or of going to a nation you steam-rolled 20 years ago with your hat in your hands.

None of this really matters if al-Maliki can’t shuck the Americans off his back, which he seems to be doing with a sudden spring of enthusiasm. Contrary to the noise from the cable pundits Al Sadr is not defeated, the Sunni separatists are not run out and the Kurdish militants aren’t giving up. As bright as General Petraeus is, when it comes to understanding Iraq he’s going to have a 1,000 point handicap to even an idiot that is from there. If al-Maliki can’t prove he’s the top dog then someone will be along to replace him, and someone who might not sit so well with the U.S. Chances are, even if we do luck up and keep al-Maliki the pretense of a kinder, gentler, democratic Iraq will likely go out the window. The Middle-East has always been a place of conflicting cultures and civilizations and it probably always will be.

What we’re seeing is a gamble in Iraq. We’re seeing whether ours will pay off, whether we have the good sense to leave when asked. If we don’t we’ll delegitimize Al-Maliki and anyone chosen to replace him as an American puppet. Then we’ll see if al-Maliki can steer the cart without any help. If it doesn’t work, we’ll see how well Americans handle excruciating dissapointment.

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