There’s too many conflicting stories to piece anything sensible out of the Caucasus hijinks at this point. First the reports are that Russia is withdrawing, and then reports come in that Russia is pushing into Poti, following reports that Georgia has been cut in half. The absence of credible information hasn’t ended wild speculation, which is disappointing when it comes from people who should know better.

We know there is still the banga-banga-banga and pow-pow-pow of guns and mortars going off along with the RRRRRRRRRR of armor moving around. No doubt some hot-blooded Georgian youngsters have decided to gin up an irregular force and try to carve their names into history, so there is likely still some mopping up going on, and any dullard can tell you that you don’t
park your tanks and trucks for long unless you really want your wheels and crews to get mortared and artilleried into swiss cheese.

If the Russians are pushing into Poti then it’s truly an ambitious shot. Without Poti the Georgians don’t have a significant port outside of the southern autonomous region of Ajara. There is a dandy little UN map, here. That includes every autonomous region BUT South Ossetia, for some reason. Curious. For the U.S., which is hoping to ride to the rescue, not having a port presents some pretty big problems. For start, supplies would have go be flown in, which is expensive and manpower intensive. A few flights have already come and gone, but its not sure where those are coming from. The air bases in Turkey are convenient, but the Turks, not wanting to get drawn in, might tell the U.S. to find their airspace for that mission elsewhere. When it comes to ships, moving carriers and relief ships into the Black Sea is not only time-consuming and expensive but dangerous as hell.

If you’re wondering where Georgia is on the Black Sea, then look no further:

The big thing is that the U.S. has to do SOMETHING. It can’t throw Georgia under the bus without being humiliated like… well, like Russia was in the wake of Kosovo. President Bush is certainly not shopping for active hostilities with the Russians right now. If the sitting administration opened a third front it’s very likely that the Republican National Committee building would have a “For Sale” shingle out front come November.

An old friend, who I didn’t know was a Ball Gunner fan, sent me some interesting questions:

Also, is this just the scenario needed to help propel Condi Rice out of obscurity after failing to deliver any meaningful developments between Israel and Palestine? Is this enough to remind people she’s an expert on Soviet/Russo matters and get her some looks for vice president on the McCain ticket?

Rice, last I heard, wasn’t chasing a VP nod. Washington being what it is, the political winds can shift. But it’s not entirely clear that John McCain would want to attach his campaign to a very high-profile member of the controversial Bush presidency. But by all accounts she was (is?) considered very knowledgeable on the region. It seems that she was one of the old-timey bureaucrats who staked her name on the Cold War dragging on into the second coming. Once that dogged out she moved to academia. What remains to be seen is whether her own ego-feeding successes are going to get in her way when it comes to brokering a treaty that is agreeable to all sides. The fact that she is blowing off Moscow entirely on her trip is not encouraging. You’d expect a Russian expert to be aware of how insulting these sorts of things are in Russian culture, or anywhere for that matter.

Russia, on the other hand, must realize that the U.S. hand in this matter is weak. The object is not, and has never been to “take over Georgia,” as much as it is to emasculate the United States. Georgia sent troops to help the U.S. mission in Iraq, the U.S. sent water bottles and chocolate bars to Georgia while they were getting ground into paste. It certainly appears that Georgia expected more support from their ally. President Saakashvili apparently took the aid pledges as a promise to safeguard key Georgian infrastructure components and caused the U.S. to issue a correction. The Georgians are not getting the help they expected, and that disappointment will be an albatross around the neck of U.S. foreign affairs for some time.

As my friend noted:

…the fact that a “new” battle began on the same day as the opening of the Olympic Games is bound to catch people’s eyes.

The 2008 Olympics in Beijing was meant to be China’s “welcome back to the world” party. It is no coincidence that the day also marked the moment that the United States and the world no longer had the luxury of writing off Russia as a has-been power.

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.