Ukraninan President Victor Yushchenko of poison surving fame has decided to kick the hornet’s nest by suggesting he’s going to boot the Russians out of their long time naval base at Sevastopol (click for map) in the Crimea.

From the Washington Times:

“Undoubtedly, the withdrawal [of the Black Sea Fleet] from the Crimea will affect Russia’s security in the south. New bases in the Mediterranean Sea could make up for the departure,” Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov stated Monday according to a report carried by the RIA Novosti news agency.

Ukraine’s pro-American President Viktor Yushchenko has been putting pressure on Russia’s leasing of the Sevastopol base in the month since Russian forces occupied one-third of the former Soviet republic of Georgia in the Caucasus in a five day operation Aug. 8-12.

Mr. Yushchenko’s policy has infuriated the Russians, who have dominated the Black Sea for almost a quarter of a millennium. Sevastopol is also a fabled fortress and hero city in Russian history that was only conquered after long, heroic sieges in the Crimean War of 1854-55, and against the British and the French, and in 1942 against the Nazis.

Yushchenko squeaked out a victory (and a life) in the 2004 presidential elections riding a thin wave of pro-Western sentiment over the Russian oriented Viktor Yanukovych. The west shifting into full speed jibberish immediately dubbed this the “Orange Revolution” and proclaimed it a glorious victory for democracy despite the well known interventions of foreign government into Ukranian politics. When questioning the west’s love for democracy we need only recall the words of the great dope Henry Kissinger:
“I don’t see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its own people. The issues are much too important for the Chilean voters to be left to decide for themselves.”

Ukraine like Georgia is all geared up and hopeful that the big boys out NATO way are going to invite them to sit at the cool kids table. Russia is, of course, telling Ukraine to stuff it up their treaty hole, and with a little over 17% ethnic Russians and enough eastern Ukrainians that might as well be Russians the chances of Ukraine running away with a wide pro-West coalition rank right up there with Bob Barr winning the presidency.

Militarily, it’s not entirely clear what would be accomplished by moving the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea and into the Mediterranean. Everybody that gets into the Black goes through Turkey, and Turkey would find itself in an unenviable position of choosing between NATO’s marching orders or staying cozy with Russia and the trading relation worth an estimated $25 billion. By hook or by crook, Russia could still find itself as the big hoss of the Black Sea.

For the U.S., having a large part of the Russian fleet stationed in Tartarus, Syria (map) would hardly be an improvement over having them squirreled away in the Black Sea. Particularly in regards to Israel, having a fleet with air capabilities would mean a threat that Israel has never taken seriously, those fast, zippy things in the air. A problem that would hinder strikes on Iran and potentially get downright ugly if it came to blows with Lebanon for the zillionth time.

But to understand the grooviest possible scenario you first need to see the map of the 2004 elections in Ukraine… TA-DA!

When someone points out that 1/3 of Ukraine, the part with the most Russians incidentally, wants a more Moscow-oriented posture the real daisy of a scenario comes into play - a vast swatch of Ukraine breaking off and attempting to rejoin Russia, and that little red dot at the bottom that voted for the pro-Russian guy to the tune of 88.83%, that just happens to be Sevastapol - the port in question.

If push comes to shove, and both of the very special boys running for the big seat in D.C. give every indication that it is, we could be looking at a reshuffling of some really old borders. All Russia would even need are the two eastern oblasts and the southern one containing the Navy base. With 97%, 93% and 81% that goal could be entirely within reach. To give you an idea, in 2004 George Bush won Texas by a piddly 62% and we called THAT a landslide.

So Viktor Yuschenko, for whatever else he might be, is not an idiot. He’s lived through a Ukranian election (barely) and he knows the political landscape. It’s not likely he’s looking for a good excuse to stir up pro-Russian sentiment and lose big chunks off his country, likely never to be seen again. So the idea of booting the Russians out of the Black Sea might sound tempting to the vicious lipsticked pitbulls in Washington, but living as a Russian neighbor brings with it certain realities. Surely we are promising to “support” Ukraine. But our dear Georgian president might be phoning ole pineapple face to inform him just how much traction that support had when the Russian army was merily dancing jigs on the rubble of his country.

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