It sure looks like the Iraq prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is jumping on board with Obama’s 16-month, 12-month, 10-month, whatever time line for troop withdrawal. No one with more than 10 IQ points can really fault al-Maliki for taking this position, being that John McCain has more or less said he would like to have a presence in Iraq until the universe burns up all the available hydrogen and goes cold. Incidentally, John McCain’s position is the very one that would almost guarantee al-Maliki swinging from the gallows within a few years.

Of course, Obama, McCain and everyone else in the world are rushing to heap praise on “The Surge” (lemon-lime flavor) for its successes without any real idea of what has been accomplished. Yes, violence is down, the streets are quiet, things seem to be improving, but this has all been bought at the expense that Iraq is now more reliant on U.S. forces than before. Post-surge troop levels are higher still than pre-surge levels. No one really knows that fewer U.S. forces mean, but its a fair guess that the bad guys have read Mao and Lao Tzu even if we have not. No one was looking to kick up trouble when the boys were in town.

Being that a good portion of these guys are still around and waiting for the green flag, the best option for Al-Maliki is showing the Americans the door and tapping his foot impatiently until we leave.

This is only the opening shots of what looks suspiciously like a good old fashioned power struggle in Iraq. The U.S. got real cozy with Europe after the fun times of kings and monarchs alternately killing or sleeping with each other, so its experience in messy political arrangements could probably fit on the back of an envelope. Besides that, the U.S. has some of the best natural barriers ever designed - the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on the sides and two non-military powers to the top and bottom. Throughout a nasty, brutish and short history the U.S. hasn’t had to cut many deals with the end goal of staying the hell alive.

Iraq, on the other hand, aint the U.S. Iraq sits smack dab on top of some of the nastiest most blood soaked soil in the world. If you don’t believe me, try this fun little bit of compressed world history:

If you really want to score extra points you’ve also got to realize that Iraq is also the major fault line between Sunni and Shia Islam, not to mention half a dozen or so break aways up north in Kurd land.

The end of the story is that living, and especially governing in Iraq is a story of busting heads, knees and caps. We thought we had it bad during the Civil War when folks lined up like they were going to the movies and marched in step toward each other like a bunch of morons. You can just imagine some old timey biblical warriors, the ones that thought raping and killing and all was what you did when the battle was over. Sherman might have thought he was tough when he leveled Atlanta — his one foul up was that after burning the city he should have slaughtered the survivors THEN salted the earth to make the land uninhabitable. Point is, at the end of the day your Americans don’t know much about keeping your head on your shoulders in a bad neighborhood but you can bet al-Maliki and the current bureaucrats in Iraq are putting in their overtime to keep the shrouds over their asses when the Americans eventually leave.

What this mean isn’t much of a shock. Nouri Al Maliki is a Shia Muslim so was the guy before him, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. The president, Jalal Talabani, is Sunni but Kurdish, and the rest of the Sunni in Iraq have a pretty good recent history of killing the Kurds. The recent hold up over elections stem from Kurdish gripes about trying to continue the de-Kurdification of Kirkuk started under Saddam Hussein. Guess what group Hussein, a Sunni Muslim, moved up there to route the Kurds out? That would be the same group that just rejoined the government upon the likely realization that Sunni voices were about to get a lot quieter in Iraq.

So the obvious choice for Iraq to buddy up with is their dear, sweet neighbor - Iran. Well, what do you know - there they are! And can you imagine a worse outcome for Washington, the U.S. military and the Republican Party than five years worth of effort, thousands of folks dead, mauled or deformed and round abouts of a trillion dollars only to have our pet country snuggling up with the regions biggest anti-American antagonist? There isn’t a writer alive that can conjure up irony like father time. It’s like the MasterCard commercial from hell. The social discontent that would follow an Iraq-Iran alliance — priceless.

But it’s not like there are any other cards on the table. The Shia majority in Iraq isn’t going to have anything to do with the Wahabbi nuts in Saudi Arabia, the Kurds aren’t going to agree to any agreement with Turkey, Syria can’t even manage Lebanon. Who’s left - Jordan and Kuwait? Boy, there’s a security alliance you can hang your hat on. Not to mention all the good press you get by buddying up with the most pro-Israel country in the region or of going to a nation you steam-rolled 20 years ago with your hat in your hands.

None of this really matters if al-Maliki can’t shuck the Americans off his back, which he seems to be doing with a sudden spring of enthusiasm. Contrary to the noise from the cable pundits Al Sadr is not defeated, the Sunni separatists are not run out and the Kurdish militants aren’t giving up. As bright as General Petraeus is, when it comes to understanding Iraq he’s going to have a 1,000 point handicap to even an idiot that is from there. If al-Maliki can’t prove he’s the top dog then someone will be along to replace him, and someone who might not sit so well with the U.S. Chances are, even if we do luck up and keep al-Maliki the pretense of a kinder, gentler, democratic Iraq will likely go out the window. The Middle-East has always been a place of conflicting cultures and civilizations and it probably always will be.

What we’re seeing is a gamble in Iraq. We’re seeing whether ours will pay off, whether we have the good sense to leave when asked. If we don’t we’ll delegitimize Al-Maliki and anyone chosen to replace him as an American puppet. Then we’ll see if al-Maliki can steer the cart without any help. If it doesn’t work, we’ll see how well Americans handle excruciating dissapointment.

There’s an old Randy Newman song named “Rednecks” that features the line about going off to college: “Went in dumb; come out dumb, too.” I think that about sums up all these quaint little trips politicians make to the various and sundry conflict areas.

John McCain has criticized Barrack Obama for not going “over there,” so the Democratic nominee has decided to go get his “done gone and seen” credentials.

Like any good project manager, any general officer is going to show off his best and brightest while carefully keeping the unpainted rooms of the house and the smelly kids tucked away in the backyard. This is not an information gathering trip so much as a pitch - Barrack Obama will get the “fund us better” pitch just like John McCain got the “fund us better” pitch and every national politician that goes gets the “fund us better” pitch.

Since Obama is apparently hauling half of the entire U.S. press corps with him there will undoubtedly be the token shots of him buying a rug /talking to the locals with a soulful look on his face / looking patriotic with the troops.

Then we can all pitch in and get him a “I went to Iraq and all I got was this lousy presidency” T-shirt.

If you own a computer, a TV or a radio you’ve heard about the assault that killed 9 U.S. soldiers and wounded 15 in Afghanistan. It doesn’t take a dynamo like the Ball Gunner to point out that things do not appear to be going well in the mountain lands.

Whatever brain trust operates in the State Department feeding whatever passes for human intelligence to Defense these days continues to look like a clumsy, fat kid trying to swat a fly. It’s all flailing and flopping and chubby arms waving all over the place.

“We just don’t get it. They’re coming from Pakistan, but we aren’t at war with Pakistan. Why do they keep coming? What is going on? Who am I? Why am I wearing this dress?”

Since the books of grand military failure are always chronically unpopular (as opposed to books of stirring success which fly off the shelves) the answer remains shrouded in mystery except to us grand cynics who realize that the nation-state model is a grand ruse of modern living. The solution, so evasive to the PhDs, is that the Pashtun, the ones we are currently fighting, don’t known and don’t particularly care about state boundaries and national sovereignty.

On this mountain, they are Pashtun. On that mountain over there, they are Pashtun, too. That a cartographer in London decided that this mountain is Afghanistan and that mountain is Pakistan is not relevant. What is relevant to the Pashtun is the Pashtun. 

This, of course, doesn’t preclude fighting among the Pashtun tribes, which the Pashtun do with aplomb. The Gilzai Pashtun, for instance, love to go to war against the Durrani Pashtun. As luck would have it, the Gilzai have a golden opportunity to fight the Durrani by fighting against president Hamid Karzai and the largely Durrani government.

All this crazy tribalism is a tough sell, end even über geeks like the Ball Gunner can’t really wrap their heads around it. But all you really need to figure out is that Afghanistan is one of the toughest places on the globe to eek out a living. The people that do it are some tough bastards, and when resources like food, shelter and habitable land are in short supply you had best be ready with a big stick when someone tries to shove you off of yours.

When it’s an all in or all out sort of game - with staying alive as the take-home, it forges some pretty tight knit and wild groups. Taking a look at just the various tribes, sub-tribes and sub-subtribes of the Pashtun ethnic group is like reading like the spreadsheet from hell, and you’ve not even factored in a half-dozen other groups from Tajiks, to Uzbeks, pseudo-Iranians, people left over from 30 failed invasions of Afghanistan through out several thousand years of history; it’s like a big party of multi-culturalism with everybody either oppressing or alternately being oppressed by somebody else. Go to certain areas of Afghanistan and you might find definitely non-regional traits like blond hair and blue eyes.

The real joke is that despite all the quips about barbarism and how wonderfully advanced “us folks over yonder in ‘Merica is” a good swath of the uneducated Afghan hillbillies are bi- or tri-lingual (even if they are illiterate.) So the next time the chest-thumpers gripe about how their children “aint never gunna learn them no Spanish” kindly remind them that hicks in the “uncivilized” part of the world know three languages, most of which aren’t even from the same language family.

So that’s the short answer for ongoing problems in Afghanistan. The U.S., like the Russians, the Greeks, the Mongols, the Romans and a long line of others are learning that when the cards hit the table the Afghan tribes stick with the Afghan tribes. They might tolerate you, feed you, wave when you go by, they might even like you. But if you expect the loyalty of the Gilzai to point anywhere but the Gilzai then you’re obviously thinking in terms of West Europe rather than Central Asia.

At the end of the day, the U.S. is appearing more and more to have somehow found itself on the wrong side of the fight in Afghanistan. Whatever the intentions going in, we’re now fighting the absolutely last people on the world you want to fight in the last place in the world you want to fight them.

There’s been all sorts of stuff just begging to be ballgunned (TM) lately. I won’t play catch up, if you read the Ball Gunner then you’re obviously a person of refining cast among the common rabble. Congratulations.

But I simply can’t pass up what is currently happening in Afghanistan. It has sneezed rigor on to these arthritic bones of mine. Plastered across Fox News even as I type is “NATO and Afghan troops to take back villages from the Taliban.” I doubt Taliban commander Mohammed Omar himself could have picked a better line to set the stage for what’s coming.

What the gulls in Washington haven’t figured out is that the front has shifted from Iraq back to Afghanistan. Iraq is done for by any and all estimates. The hapless goobers in the big media have snuggled up to the “security gains” of late, except nobody has really let slip the slimy truth that we are paying all sides to play nice and behave for awhile. No one is asking, because once that question gets asked someone is just going to be FORCED to ask, “Well, what are they spending the money on?” and the short answer is that they are making down payments on dead Americans, collaborators and rivals with our own money. The British financed their own defeat in Afghanistan long back when Kipling was writing about it. Now, we’re doing the same in Iraq.

But since we’re feeding our own flames in Iraq, the folks we’re fighting, the ones we still believe are some clueless ‘tards with an AK and an RPG, are shifting funding, logistics and operations to Afghanistan. The story is that the Taliban has “seized” a bunch of small towns around Kandahar, the Ball Gunners speculation is that there wasn’t any “seizing” like when the Germans “seized” Stalingrad (however briefly) or the French “seized” Dien Bien Phu. These sorts of “seizings” imply that you fought your way in, I’d imply the Pashtun “seizing” the area around Kandahar is more like Raiders fans “seizing” the Oakland Colliseum, except that the Pashtun have fewer guns and are better mannered.

Simply put, you can’t seize something that’s yours to begin with. This is something the U.S. grapples with - you can’t liberate a place from the people who live there. After the liberators are gone the people are still there, except now they hate you.

Speaking of things the U.S. grapples with, how about diversity? The Afghan army is held up as a model of people from different tribal regions and groups and ethnicities palling around like they’re the A-Team. Which is great, and gets you about 5 feet outside the military base before it breaks up. What it means for current operations can be pretty well summed up.

I. An army full of Uzbeks, Turkmen, Tajiks and a half dozen other groups is going to be sent into the heart of Pashtun country to fight. 

For settling down a region, this strategy would rank right up with sending in the Klan to calm down the L.A. street riots. Which is to say, it will not only not work, it will probably fail spectacularly.
Even assuming the combined armies manages to pacify the area you still don’t get past your first stumbling block - the people you’ve liberated are still there, except now they hate you. You’ve shown the Pashtun that you’re on the side of the people they’ve been fighting since long before the U.S. was even a feeble idea. You’ve shown a proud people that you’re going to make them subservient to others. You’ve, in essence, rammed hell down their throats.

Trying to do anything in Afghanistan has historically been shown to be a pretty pointless venture. Everyone from the Soviets to Alexander can attest to the fact that once you enter that realm everything you know about how people organize and function rewinds about a thousand years. But the one rule, the BIIIIIIG thing you JUST. DON’T. FORGET. is that once you alienate the Pashtun your options are limited to 1) retreat  or 2) a repeat of General Elphinstone’s disaster.

Summer sure got hot early.

“…As long as there is a reasonable prospect for succeeding in this war then we must not choose to lose it.”

But once prospects become unreasonable then, by all means, lose away.

These bits of optimism are cheery. William Lind once recounted the anecdote of a junior officer in the Wehrmacht who said in 1945 that Berlin was an ideal place for his office, as he would soon be able to take a street car between the two fronts.

There’s been a big stink between Russia and Georgia lately, which is to say Russia is doing what it wants and Georgia is complaining to NATO.

The latest from Reuters:

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Russia’s deployment of extra troops in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has brought the prospect of war “very close”, a minister of ex-Soviet Georgia said on Tuesday.

Separately, in comments certain to fan rising tension between Moscow and Tbilisi, the “foreign minister” of the breakaway Black Sea region was quoted as saying it was ready to hand over military control to Russia.

“We literally have to avert war,” Temur Iakobashvili, a Georgian State Minister, told reporters in Brussels.

Asked how close to such a war the situation was, he replied: “Very close, because we know Russians very well.”

To start with, Georgia does not go to war against Russia in the same sense that Junior’s pee-wee team does not play football against the New York Giants. Whatever its failings, during the 90s, Vladimir Putin’s reign as president (which ends today) saw the resurgence of the Russian military. The Russians have a military tradition a bit beyond extraordinary, they lost 3 million people in the first World War, then fought a long, bloody civil war, to the tune of 9 million, then lost 20 million people in the second World War and still weren’t giving an inch when the U.S. forces in Europe thought they’d be a push over. When you put 32 million people into the meat grinder in half a century while standing firm on the mat you get your hardcore military culture bona fides. Then to spike the ball, you release a picture of a guy doing this:

and the Ballgunner is really willing to concede that his manhood is measured in fractions, possibly even fractions with decimals.

When you take this and put it against the Georgians, whose military consists of, uh……… Well you get the point. The Georgian military is defensive oriented, but defensive against other military power houses like Azerbaijan, Armenia or possibly the dreaded Ossetians. Georgia vs Russia would not look even remotely like a fight. The Russians tried the touchy feely stuff in Chechnya, and got embarrassed. Then, someone on the command staff realized they had been reading from the American book, they took a big swig of vodka, proclaimed Мы Русский! and put the hammer down. Do you hear of any problems from Chechnya?

When you consider that every country in the former Soviet sphere is chock full of Russian intelligence agents throughout the government and the military, there arises the even more delightful scenario that Georgia might try to assemble the military only to find half of them already lined up on the other side.

In a lot of ways this is really fun to watch. Russia was warning the west to leave Serbia alone in the Kosovo matter. But in a monument to hardheadedness, NATO got involved in the Orthodox/Catholic/Muslim debacle that predates every standing government in the world and will still be raging when NATO is listed next to League of Nations and Chechnya in the book of “Ooops!” But the U.S. signed off on Kosovo by playing the ethnicity card, oblivious to the fact that the “area” of Kosovo is about as Serbian as Bunker Hill is American. Now, the Russians are saying, “Look! The poor Abkhazians are ethnically distinct from the Georgians, they should have their own country too! It’s even better that they want their country to join our country!” I’m sure it has nothing to do with those lovely Black Sea shipping lanes that are up for grabs (not that Russia doesn’t already have some, but you can never have too many ports.)

Now, the west really looks silly. They can try the, “No, no. That’s not fair,” routine and wind up looking like hypocrites. Or they can throw Georgia under the bus, at which point an alliance with NATO will be shown as worth less than a big pile of doody. Meanwhile, Russia gets to sit back, enjoy the show and ponder their next move. What about those large Russian populations in the Baltic nations? What about the divided population in Ukraine? There are opportunities aplenty for Russia to thank NATO, the E.U. and the U.S. for stomping on its toes for the last few years.

We’re reminded of one of those people from long ago, when folks seemed to know what they were talking about. That someone was Otto von Bismark, who left us this: “The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”

The Israelis blowing something up is hardly news worthy. But when they punched a hole in the paper thin Syrian air defense and leveled something in late September 2007, it became a story because the Israelis seemed to be doing back flips to get it out of the spotlight.

First it was nothing, then an air strike, then the online analysts started putting things together and thinking this was something big. But something big didn’t make sense either; if the Syrians were two rods away from a nuke it only seems logical that the U.S. and Israel would be yelling it from the rooftops.

Instead, we got more stories about the event than the local VFW. Until the other day when President Bush started beating the Syria nuclear drums again. The intelligence was unveiled for a number of really damn odd reasons. “One would be to the North Koreans to make it abundantly clear that we may know more about you than you think,” was the President’s reason du jure. I’m not entirely sure what it is “we know that they don’t know that we know,” but even I know that the fat man from Pyongyang already has  nukes, he made them and tested them in the face of some of the most furious finger-shaking I’ve seen since Catholic school. So we’ve really got nothing explained here.

If the war voices hadn’t been evangelizing Iranian nukes for a year or so I might be able to get a grip on why the lid was kept on the information. It’s not like we’re cozy with the Syrians. We can’t even get them to control their border, which has been a huge entry point into Iraq for various and sundry bad guys since the beginning. So why wouldn’t there be singing and dancing in Washington for a good solid reason to slap Syria around?

When you get down to possible reasoning there’s not a lot of cause to celebrate. We’ve already pretty much figured out that withholding the information doesn’t make any sense. So what are we left with?

One possibility is that Syria had managed to put a nuke program together and almost put together a bomb without anyone noticing. If this is the case it probably qualifies as one of the biggest intelligence blunders in a long, soiled history of intelligence blunders. Given that the intel now claims the Syrians built their stuff using North Korean technology, this really makes the Ballgunner’s head turn backwards. If North Korea, a country we’re supposedly watching like 20 hawks, managed to sneak it’s nuke program out of the country and set it up, right next to a gigantic U.S. theater of operations without anyone noticing then that implies a whole slew of people asleep at an impressive array of switches.

The other possibility, and one the Ballgunner hopes is accurate, is that a story is being cooked up to cover butts from the Potomac River to the Golan Heights. It could be the Israelis acted on bad intel, the Syrians had something they weren’t necessarily supposed to have (doesn’t have to be nukes), maybe a high ranking terror leader popped his head up for a second, who in the world knows? Syria, for its part in the mess, hasn’t exactly been forthcoming with details. They assure us they are the victims just as loud as we assure them they were the aggressors. For all I know it was a wink and a nod at Iran to not get too froggy. But none of these make much sense in the grand scheme.

The Ballgunner is going to be waiting to see what’s next in this field. There are lots of conflicting stories bumping around that only look good right at the surface.

It’s the big news that the heap-big “Surge” doctor is going to be taking over at Central Command (CENTCOM) and the number two in Iraq (slightly less heap-big ) Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno is getting promoted to full-bore “heap big.” Stars and Stripes had a glowing article about how the nomination means the military is going to “embrace counterinsurgency” and that the move is “…part of a shift in the military’s warfighting philosophy to the counterinsurgency tactics that both men embrace.”

But let’s take this pill with a bit of realism.

The last CENTCOM commander just got patted on the head and shuffled off somewhere nice and quiet and away from the media for being rather blunt about his disagreements with the Heap-Biggest in Chief who resides in the White Teepee in DC. Admiral William Fallon didn’t mince many words about the powers rooting for attacking Iran when he said ”This constant drum beat of conflict is what strikes me which is not helpful and not useful. […] I expect that there will be no war and that is what we ought to be working for.” (USA Today) This didn’t sit to well with the democr-issars, partly because rumors have been floating around for some time that either we’re already set for a bombing strike into Iran or we’re already set to act shocked when the Israelis execute a bombing strike into Iran.

Given CENTCOM’s dirty laundry flapping gently in the breeze for the world to enjoy, President Bush nominating his shining champion of Iraq to take up the banner is about as shocking as sand on the beach. But this also represents a pretty big tossup for the big military command. Petraeus made his bread and butter during the surge. Everyone’s lined up to pat him on the back, but the long and short is we don’t know if the tree is going to bear good fruit or just those crappy apples the squirrels knock down before they’re ripe. If Iraq winds up good to go as the Surge forces decline (not looking likely as agitations continue in Basra and Sadr City) then our new CENTCOM commander can ride is as the hero who saved the day. But if Iraq continues circling the bowl we’re going to be dealing with a powerful military commander whose face has been thoroughly egged.

If the latter turns out to be the case it will likely appear that Bush the Junior (just like Clinton the Male-er) packed up a military full of administration-friendly commanders. The military can afford infighting in the post-November maelstrom like I can afford a Ferrari.

Petraeus’ legacy as a counter-insurgent strategist won’t be fully played out for a few year. But as the chief of CENTCOM his ability at politicking will be judged much quicker.

He might find that he enjoyed Iraq better, if you lose there, all they cut off is your head.

The chief chair-warmer in the White House is getting spun up for the big NATO conference in Bucharest, Romania, and the event is already interesting to nerds like me. The main event, is Bush going head to head with the two powerhouses of Europe, France and Germany, over NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, and Russia has made it very, very clear that this is not an option that would behoove anyone.

White House press secretary Dana Perino, has espoused what is either boat loads of moxie or thundering ignorance by saying , “The last time we checked, Russia didn’t get a vote. And this is a NATO discussion, a NATO exercise, and it will be a NATO decision.”

This blithe little statement is nothing short of the White House saying to Russia and West Europe, “Let’s you and him fight.” America might be more or less insulated and isolated from the geopolitics in Europe, but France and Germany don’t have that claim. It gets bloody cold up on that fertile plain, and a whole lot of Russian fuel goes into heating German and French homes.

Russia is also likely hedging bets that Europe wouldn’t like to see the simmering conflict in Serbia and the faux-state of Kosovo blow up. Kosovo, being primarily Muslim, is really and truly an outlier in the European world, which for the last long stretch of history has been divided into Orthodox (east) and Catholic/protestant (west). Russia has the gasoline to pour on the Orthodox fires in Serbia, and given the general instability that lingers in the Balkans, no one is willing to write off a reignition of the ethnic fires of the 1990s.

This dolts at the cable news, of course, are missing the broader picture here. Bush is making an unprecedented attempt to redraw the political lines of Europe, and his failure or success is going to be important for generations.

Irritants in China — or irritants to Beijing, I should say — are ceasing the increasingly bright spotlight in the run up to the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. The million-dollar wager, is that the Communist Party will lay off the billy club while the world is watching and the repressed groups can yank a little rope out for themselves from the national government. The Chinese government is trying, quite desperately, to dissuade them of these notions.

This has lit some fires in Tibet, which is showing that pacifism gets pretty old after 50 some-odd years of having your day ruined by the People’s Liberation Army. Most reports on the ground say that loathing is mutual between the PLA and the Tibetans. The Tibetans intentionally do not speak Mandarin. In fact, most people I’ve spoken with who have visited Tibet said there are generally two languages spoken- English and Tibetan (surprise!). This means that the PLA, which is mostly comprised of ethnically Han Mandarin speakers, is unable to assimilate into the local culture. When you give a 19-year old kid a uniform and a rifle and stick him among people he can’t communicate with or understand he’s going to vent his resentment on the population.

Realizing this, China is now trying to “Han-ify” Tibet by moving lots of people with lots of money into the area. This has met with some success, because as much as people hate being bossed around by soldiers, they often love taking well-paying jobs. It is these efforts, combined with Beijing’s efforts to interfere with Tibet’s long standing belief in reincarnation of the Buddha (the source of the Dalai Lama’s authority,) that has triggered the most recent protests.

Chances are we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg when it comes to unrest in China. From the Falun Gong and Falun Dafa , the Tibetans, the Muslim separatists in Xinjiang province (graciously declared terrorists with the blessing of the U.S.,) democratic reformers, a handful of smaller ethnic groups (55 ethnic groups is the official count in China) and a generous helping of democratic reformers and other antagonists are betting that Beijing is going to go light on the stick with all the international attention.

This also puts the rest of the world in a sticky situation. China is the up and coming big boy, and everyone is trying to find ways to play nice while putting on just the right amount of poopy-face about the fact that China remains a repressive dictatorship.

How this plays out will greatly effect China’s military relations with the world. Hu Jintao is not about to show the world a divided China this summer, at the same time, he surely realizes that a repeat of Tiananmen Square with the entire world not only watching, but in the mix, would be disastrous for the efforts to present China as a forward-thinking, progressive nation.

The importance of this summer’s events cannot be understated.

First, this is pretty much China’s debutante ball - the big coming out as a world player. China has signified that it really doesn’t give a rat’s removal orifice what the world thinks. But if the world were so appalled that the western powers started slapping trade restrictions China’s boom could deflate quickly.

Second, China is busy reinventing it’s military. The PLA was born as an internal revolutionary movement, and spent decades as more of an internal police force rather than an external military. The PLA conducted one of the most masterful guerrilla campaigns the world has ever seen against Chiang Kai-Chek and the Kuomintang. Then, only a few years later, they fought the Americans using the slightly less masterful tactics of throwing human meat against machine guns until the barrels melted. But China’s economic explosion is pushing the military ahead in leaps and bound, and the PLA is being recast as a credible force, capable of projecting power beyond the boundaries of China.

Finally, many of the world’s political chips are up in the air. For all its strengths, China is and always has been resource poor. While athletes compete in the smoggy cloud of Beijing’s armpit like summer, there will be other competitions going on that will shape Asia throughout the 21st century.

In other words, keep an eye on the news this summer, in addition to the Olympics.